Prognosticating the Politics of 2012

After living through a volatile 2011 (the Arab Spring, the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown, Libya, the Occupy Movement, economic uncertainty, etc.) the world might see a 2012 that's just as chaotic and harrowing.  Yet there's much to be thankful for as we begin another year, with the potential for more outbursts of democratic revolution.

via Los Angeles Times

Syria Moving Toward Peace?  
The political will of the people is becoming centralized of late, deciding to go it alone by not allowing a foreign military intervention (ala Libya).  It's exciting to not only see this unity of opposing factions but also the clarity of their purpose, unwilling to be compromised by external forces in pursuing the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.  Who knows if the military will continue their sniper attacks, continuing their assault on the citizens of Syria that's raged since last March or if the Arab League will be able to diplomatically influence what's happening on the ground.  In time, the only ways I see a peaceful resolution to this bloody turmoil is either an overthrow of the Assad regime or long-term economic isolation to the point of Assad conceding.  Neither outcome looks to be on the immediate horizon.

The latest news in Syria, reported just this morning, is that the government has withdrawn their tanks out of the cities and released "3,500 detainees" as a result of "regional initiative" following reports from Arab League observers on the ground who recently withdrew as well.  The evident goal is cease-fire, which has not as of this morning been achieved, yet every positive step in the process is welcome at this point.

   Scary to see how linked our growth is to Europe's...          via American Progress

The Global Economy
In the US, the economy is finally starting to show signs of life with increased growth and lower unemployment of late.  The problem now?  The shoe is on the other foot with economic foreign powers slumping (China, Europe) while we're just starting to get back on our feet.  If the EU debt crisis continues to damage the European markets and/or China's growth continues to slow, it could spell a longer economic recession for everybody and cast further uncertainty on who leads America going forward.  In 2012, I see an increase in American output, a slower yet steady continuance of Chinese growth and a mediocre or even no recovery for the Euro-zone, potentially similar to the slow 2011 recovery here in the US.  ABC News put something out this morning on their projections for the US economy.

via theaustralian.com.au

China and North Korea 
Will they become further destabilized or instead continue their partnership of citizen oppression, censorship and famine?  If North Korea or China are ever going to trend toward the Democratic changes we've seen in the past year in the Arab states, it'll happen in the next five years.  Though what's been most evident during Kim Jung Un's transition to power is just how strong their Stalinist system is, with those in power enjoying the fruits of their work. Historically, the most successful attempts at toppling a regime have been undertaken during times of transition and in North Korea I see no such weakness.  While the people of China are are gathering and protesting more than they have in recent years, there is no doubting the power their leaders have in suppressing the voices of the people via censorship, jailing human rights lawyers, continued suppression of religion and human rights, with no evidence of their leadership crumbling at this point.


The Occupy Movement
While most of the occupy encampments have been forcibly removed and the cold weather may have frozen out the original notion of a constant physical presence (though there are exceptions), there continues to be a plethora of activity in many of the originally occupying cities.  The most exciting recent actions have included the West Coast port shutdown, the Minnesota house occupations and just this morning, the march that concluded the Tournament of Roses Parade in Pasadena.  I don't see the Occupy Movement abating anytime soon, expecting it to only gather more steam as the weather gets better this Spring.

via CBS News

The Caucuses and Primaries  
Romney will most likely capture a majority of the state-by-state contests, with Paul and Gingrich possibly picking up a couple and Perry potentially snagging one or two himself.  It's pretty tough to project considering the volatility of the electorate, as evidenced by their mad Fall campaigns, the diversity of the states and the huge fluctuations in polling.  I see Romney winning a long battle (reminiscent of the long primary season between Clinton and Obama in '08), ultimately ending with Romney losing by a greater margin in the general election than McCain did to Obama in 2008.  Below is the most recent poll of polls from Real Clear Politics:

People get so wrapped up in polling and the excitement the traditional horse race handicapping of candidates that they often miss the simplicity of how determining a projected winner can be.  Please take a look at Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House method of prediction.  He's accurately predicted 7 of the last 7 presidential elections based on his thirteen criteria. He had a great debate earlier last year with Nate Silver and this year he's predicting a victory for President Obama.  I see no reason to doubt his method at this point, unless the economy takes a drastic turn for the worse.

For more political and cultural commentary, stop by Auspicious Scuttlebutt, as I'll be covering the coming primaries and caucuses, plus in-depth looks at each of the remaining candidates.

Hope your 2012 is filled with joy and prosperity!

Some Sunday morning thoughts on the Tenth Amendment, or "states' rights"

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people. "Tenthers" have made quite a name for themselves lately, in a resurgence of anti-Federalism, which is all the rage since "that man from Kenya took the presidency."  No, that's not entirely accurate; anti-Federalists and those fearing the increasing size of the federal government have been around since the United States' inception, of course.  But, since I haven't given much thought to this particular argument until fairly recently, I'm going to offer some initial perceptions. My understanding of what "states' rights" even means in terms of its practical application is a bit murky.  In my observation, the people who so fervently argue in favor of states' rights tend to do so to find a constitutional loophole to maintain their religious and/or patriarchal dominance over their states' population, or to continue oppressing or discriminating against other people for their own gain, without the interference of that pesky federal government whose attempts at curtailing environmental havoc and economic disaster are ruining the richest few's money-hoarding.  This, of course, is a prime reason why progressive-minded folks and those on the left express frustration with Tenther's arguments and accuse them of simply being racist, classist, oppressive, and scores of other non-egalitarian things. On the other hand, consider the effect a smaller federal government could have when practicing democracy and freedom.  In a country like the United States, the battles over... well, everything... are next to impossible to resolve.  If I were simply a citizen or resident of Minnesota, rather than "The United States," my participation in the democratic process would be far simpler, and far more meaningful.  The state is smaller, obviously, making participation not only more meaningful, but easier.  My understanding of the inner-workings of other countries is also a bit murky right now, but I think of the European Union.  Several different countries, unified in some ways, but maintaining independence of their own.  Not being a European citizen, I really can't speculate on how well this works for the people (perhaps some of our European readers can offer their perspectives?), but I do often wonder why the Americas can't do something similar.  I have to imagine that many of our more bigoted citizens would balk at the idea of sharing a union of sorts with people from Mexico (job-stealers!) or South America (brown socialists!) or even Canada (white socialists!); but... oh, what the hell am I talking about?  I do not have the historical background to seriously discuss such things.  But one more thought: The federal government, in theory, is beneficial in that it provides roads linking the states, a postal service, and other things that benefit each of the states individually and as a whole.  The federal government also sets standards for equal rights and protections against discrimination (again, in theory).  Conversely, the federal government, while they try, doesn't account very well for differences in state populations when it comes to implementing certain policies.  Some things may work better for some states than others in certain cases, so a unified policy may be more detrimental to some states, but beneficial to others.  Things like legalizing same-sex marriage, marijuana politics, allowing women the vote, abortion, and other equal rights and privacy concerns, on the other hand, shouldn't be left up to the states, because that is, in effect, allowing some states to discriminate or maintain discriminatory and even dangerous policies and practices for no reason other than to protect profit or dominance of the few in power. Thoughts?

Netroots Nation 2011

Cross-posted at Feministe.

When I heard Netroots Nation was going to be in my hometown of Minneapolis this year, I jumped on the chance to register. I totally lucked out, too: I was a student, which took $100 off the registration fee, and had just gotten my tax returns– without which, I probably wouldn’t have been able to justify the cost. As you can imagine, I have been waiting eagerly and impatiently for this weekend for months!

You can see a schedule of the sessions and their descriptions here [PDF]. It was difficult to choose, as so many of them looked interesting and were sure to be helpful, but I was extremely happy with each of the session I attended. Highlights of some of the panels I attended:

The Story of Citizens United

It's a little over-simplified (our legislators aren't bad?  Because I'm of the belief that if they allow themselves to be bought by lobbyists at the expense of the people and the planet, they are), but it's a good overview of the Citizens United ruling, and why we need to get corporations out of our elections and put democracy back into the hands of actual people.

This is what democracy looks like

As you've already probably heard, today, nearly all of Indiana's Senate Democrats have followed the Wisconsin 14's lead and jumped ship, probably off to Illinois, the apparent safe haven for the Midwest's MIA Democratic lawmakers.  The cause of the Democrats' disappearing act is similar to Wisconsin's -- opposition to a bill that, if passed (which it is expected to, as both Indiana's House and Senate are majority Republican),  will effectively eliminate certain union bargaining rights:

Today’s fight was triggered by Republicans pushing a bill that would bar unions and companies from negotiating a contract that requires non-union members to kick-in fees for representation. It’s become the latest in what is becoming a national fight over Republican attempts to eliminate or limit collective bargaining.

Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, a Republican, actually opposes the legislation, and has asked GOP leaders to drop it, with no success.  Not only does he oppose the legislation, but he also doesn't plan to send Indiana state troopers out to find the missing lawmakers, but he is fully in support of their decision:

“The activities of today are perfectly legitimate part of the process,” he said. “Even the smallest minority, and that’s what we’ve heard from in the last couple days, has every right to express the strength of its views and I salute those who did.”

The Wisconsin 14, meanwhile, are still assumed to be in Wisconsin, while Governor Walker attempts to lure them back home with threats to basically cancel their direct deposit, forcing them to collect their wages in person, from the House Majority Leader.  They're also planning to push ahead a vote on requiring voters to show photo ID in order to be eligible to vote, which Democrats are strongly opposed to, in the hopes that they will return to attempt fighting its passage.

This, of course, comes just at the heels of another recent development: the fact that Wisconsin Governor Walker plans to sell Wisconsin's infrastructure to the Koch Brothers:

Walker’s bill would allow state-owned heating, cooling, and power plants to be sold to private investors. As if that weren’t bad enough — selling off our public wealth as a short-term budget fix — the bill would also allow the sale to be made without competitive bidding. In other words, Wisconsin’s infrastructure will be sold directly to the Koch Brothers at bargain-basement prices.

Is there anyone left who isn't mad about this yet?  If these measures, and the larger trends of union-busting, are allowed to pass, the outlook is bleak.  As Warren notes, 

It’s a circle of deception for the American middle-class and intends to further add to the ridiculous discrepancy between the top 1% and the rest of us who work for them… soon with no ability or rights to demand living wages.  If they are not stopped by the workers (especially those very folks who claim these people represent them) then I fear a return to the dark ages of labor, such as the Industrial Age of the 1890's, where we serve the almighty dollar which will have been completely wrangled and imprisoned by the richest ever to walk the earth.

While the protests over proposed anti-worker legislation in Wisconsin and Indiana aren't directly comparable to what's happening in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and other countries abroad, the ongoing fights for freedom and democracy in the Middle East have clearly motivated us in other parts of the world to reconsider what we think we know about our governments, our leaders, and our ways of life.  I wrote the other day that I believe that the Wisconsin protests are important because of the threat that union-busting will have on the Democratic party's future success, but I think it's also important to consider this to be a wake-up call, and a call to continued action for those of us who advocate for the rights of the common person, the common worker, the poor, and the marginalized, everywhere.  

We don't know yet how things will pan out in Wisconsin, or in Indiana.  We don't know yet whether or not  the efforts of the Democrats who fled their home states as a last-ditch attempt to protect their states' workers' rights will be in vain.  We do know, though, that people joining together, willing to get loud and demand their rights, has worked in the past, still works today, and, if we keep at it, will continue to work in the future.  And we do know, too, that state legislators have successfully gotten unfair and damaging legislation dropped as a result of fleeing their states in past attempts.  What we need to remember is that we can keep doing this.  This is what democracy looks like!  This is what it looks like when working people realize that they have been placated and lied to long enough, and they've woken up to hold accountable those who are responsible.  

Important to remember are the wider implications of what's going on; seeing the forest, rather than the trees, to borrow from an over-used cliche.  What's most important is that we  keep letting those in power know that we will no longer allow them get away with making millions on the backs of their hardest-working citizens without adequate compensation and safety; we will no longer allow them to get away with profiting off of our planet's destruction; we will no longer allow them to get away with lying to us and taking advantage of our fears in order to push through their destructive agendas that will hurt us most in the end.  The fight isn't just on behalf of the country's low-level government employees, or its union workers; it's on behalf of every single person in this country who works full-time and is still living below the poverty line, for those who lack good health insurance, for those who are not in the upper income brackets of the elite few.  It's for the rest of us, who are finally fed up with empty promises and leaving our fates up to the whims of corporate America and Big Business interests.  It's about real democracy, which is us. 

People think that Americans are too sheltered, too coddled, so blind to the realities of the rest of the world, and what a "struggle" really is.  Or that, if Egyptians were Democrats, there wouldn't have even been a revolution in Egypt.  I think that this is a good point.  And, for as much as we like to believe what we keep hearing (it is easier), the Unites States is absolutely not the best at everything; in fact, we're really bad at a whole lot of really important things.  We have a lot to work on, and it's about time that we finally start realizing that.

For those of us falling on the left of the political spectrum, I think our future success from now forward depends on how we continue to respond to similar threats to average, hardworking Americans, and how willing we are to keep fighting, LOUDLY, and PRESENTLY.  This is what's important. It feels so inspiring because it is.  We liberals don't tend to fight all that loudly; we're more apt to blog furiously, or try to otherwise peaceably work it out... at least, that's how we're stereotyped to handle these conflicts.  And I think this is both because and why we consistently don't win.  We aren't as organized, and sometimes, it's true: sometimes we don't fight hard enough.  And this is our proof that we can actually do it, the motivation we need to finally win:  Speak Up.  Be Loud.  Get Heard.  They have to listen.  


...And finally, FUCKING VOTE.  It's probably safe to say that the majority of lazy slackers who are too apathetic to walk down the block and just fucking vote hold typically progressive/liberal views, and would have voted Democrat, if they'd bothered to get to the polls and maybe spend an hour or two listening to their local NPR member station or reading a page or two of their local newspaper to get basic information about the main candidates.  


Look, the right-wing counts on this happening.  We know this.  Let's stop living in that world where we pretend that's an unlikely conspiracy theory, and get with it.  They know that the majority of the country doesn't feel the way that they do, because the people whom their policies benefit make up a very, very small minority.  If they had to tell the truth and allow voters to make their decisions based on real information, they would never win.  Because they are a band of greedy fucks who care not about anything but their bank accounts and the bank accounts of their most valuable campaign contributors.  They know that they wouldn't be in office, fucking up everything for the rest of us while they make even more money, year after year after year, if you fuckers got off your Play Stations and spent half a second helping the rest of us make sure that doesn't happen.  So in 2012: I BEST SEE YOU OUT THERE.  It's literally up to you now, slackers.  We know you're on board; just put down the bong and get out there.

Democracy is within our reach.  Real protection for the working class is in our reach.  Let's keep up the momentum!  We're the ones who believe in the rights of marginalized people, who promote equality and free will; this is the time to stand up and make sure it happens.

And just try to watch and hear a minute of this without getting chills or tearing up:

Wisconsin, democracy, the Midwest, and truth

Rachel Maddow discussed the importance of the Wisconsin protests on her show the other night.  I agree with her general sentiment that what is in peril right now is the success of the Democratic party as a whole, considering the transparent attempt to eradicate unions, or, at minimum, their sizable political influence, which overwhelmingly helps the Democratic party. 

More specifically, though, the protests in Wisconsin are important because they are occurring in the Midwest, the part of the United States known typically for its stalwart conservative viewpoints-- even though that's not necessarily how we all vote, particularly in the larger Midwestern cities like Minneapolis and Chicago.  Consequently, the fact that so many of the more extreme attacks on women, personal freedoms, the environment, unions, and scores of other things progressives (and, it seems, humans) find most important are coming from State legislators from Midwestern states, the uprising in Wisconsin is unexpected-- and inspiring.

Midwestern values are mostly what you'd expect: the importance of family, down-home values of kindness, respect, and avoidance of conflict at nearly all costs; strong ties to community and neighborly kindness; and keeping our noses out of everyone's business, and all the drama.  As a result, we enjoy a sort of quiet, more intimate community existence, which most consider to be incompatible with loud, in-your-face political protesting and grassroots political change... coming from the left!

So, here are the Midwesterners, letting the rest of the country know that no matter what you think of "Flyover Country," we're not going to let our guard down.  We're not going to stand by as corporate interests and lobbyists want to take away our basic rights and our abilities to fight for them.  We're not going to sit idly by as the far-right attempts, once again, to regress the entire country into a place where individuals have to fight tooth and nail just to get by, while watching our wealthier, business-owning neighbors pollute the land we love and work for, take away our basic rights to fight for our own interests, and oppress everyone in the name of the almighty dollar, while responding to complaints with tired calls to simply pull up one's bootstraps.  We're waking up, and realizing that the popular saying is true: that you can't pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you can't afford boots.  

Whether or not you agree with the protesters, MIA legislators, and state workers in Wisconsin, it can't be denied that the protests are a key indicator that citizens all over the world, including here in the USA, are tired of what has amounted to a rather pretend version of the democracy that we hold so dear to ourselves as Americans, that we try to justify foreign wars with, that we claim to want to "spread" all over the world.  "Democracy" was, and still is, anover-used and nearly meaningless term used to remind us placate us with the false assurance that, here in America, we are morally superior to other countries in that we give our citizens the power to control our nation.  Well, we've woken up.  While our collective oppression cannot be compared completely with that of the countries in the Middle East who are fighting for their basic rights, we exist on the same spectrum of humans who are fed up with the few at the top making billions on the backs of the rest of us, denying us basic rights, having our humanity up for vote every couple years.  We're starting to really understand that we are, in fact, voiceless, and that if we want to get anything done, we need to rely on ourselves to show those in power how important it is, and that we will not take it anymore.  I agree with Warren, who sums up our current political climate thusly:

I've found I'm less about the institutions, the positions and the protocol of our system and more about the individual needs of the people that are supposed to be served by them.  Too often today our needs as a people are being supplanted by the demands of corporations, the lobbyists that serve them, the politicians that beg for their support in order to run campaigns, then the often lack-luster results that come from most all of our political leaders platforms being compromised by the influence of dollars.  

Anyone who is interested in change, anyone who is interested in restoring democracy, anyone who is fed up with continually being lied to by all parties involved, needs to use this opportunity, this giant wave of inspiration, this completely basic utilization of our First Amendment rights, and speak out.  We want TRUTH, and we want our voices heard, finally.  We need our basic rights respected.  And we should not settle for less.  Let's ride the wave of this momentum and really make the change we're continually saying we want.  Stand up and yell!  Sometimes, you just have to be loud.  And the other side has been louder than us for far too long.

Yell!  Like this guy:

People need to hear it, and know that we will no longer be the half of this two-party bullshit system that is too apathetic to get loud. Vote, yell, protest, and make your opinion heard!  Let the otherwise-quiet Midwest be your guide.